From TODAY
HANOI — Hanoi will soon have a credible naval deterrent to Beijing in the South China Sea in the form of Kilo-class submarines from Russia, which experts have said could make Beijing think twice before pushing its much smaller neighbour around in disputed waters.
Vietnamese Navy’s first submarine class Kilo (Vietnam News Agency/AFP/Getty Images)
A master of guerrilla warfare, Vietnam has taken possession of two of the state-of-the-art submarines and will get a third in November under a US$2.6 billion (S$3.3 billion) deal with Moscow in 2009. A final three are scheduled to be delivered in two years.
While both Vietnam and China are under communist rule and annual trade has risen to US$50 billion, Hanoi has long been wary of Beijing, especially over its claims to most of the potentially energy-rich South China Sea. Beijing’s placement of an oil rig in waters claimed by Hanoi earlier this year infuriated the latter, but coastguard vessels despatched by Vietnam to the platform were always chased away by larger Chinese boats.
The Vietnamese are likely to run so-called area denial operations off its coast and around its military bases in the Spratly island chain of the South China Sea once the submarines are fully operational, said experts.
That would complicate Chinese calculations over military moves against Vietnamese holdings in the Spratlys or in the event of an armed clash over disputed oil fields, though China has a much larger navy, including a fleet of 70 submarines, they added.
“Sea denial means creating a psychological deterrent by making sure a stronger naval rival never really knows where your subs may be,” said Mr Collin Koh of Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“It is classic asymmetric warfare utilised by the weak against the strong and something I think the Vietnamese understand very well. The question is whether they can perfect it in the underwater dimension.”
Hanoi is not wasting time getting to grips with its biggest arms purchase — the centrepiece of a naval expansion programme that state media has kept largely under wraps.
From the sheltered harbour of Cam Ranh Bay — home to a massive United States military base during the Vietnam War — the first two submarines have recently been sighted plying the Vietnamese coast on training runs, said regional diplomats.
A Vietnamese crew is also training aboard its third Kilo in waters off St Petersburg ahead of its delivery to Cam Ranh Bay in November, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported last month.
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