By JAMES T. AREDDY, Wall Street Journal
SHANGHAI—Pro-democracy rallies in Hong Kong present Chinese President Xi Jinping with stark choices between concession and crackdown that promise consequences for some of the nation’s policy challenges—and his own political standing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping faces tough choices between modifying the proposed formula for Hong Kong’s election system and appearing weak, or dislodging the protesters with force that would conjure memories of Beijing’s bloody 1989 pro-democracy crackdown in Tiananmen Square. (Zuma Press)
Throughout the weekend as mostly student protesters confronted police and again Monday after the demonstrations shut down normal business activity in parts of Hong Kong, Mr. Xi stayed in Beijing and made no public comments on the protests. Instead, lower-level government spokesmen called the protests illegal and warned foreigners not to get involved in a domestic issue. (Read The Wall Street Journal’s live updates on the protests here.)
The Hong Kong demonstrations, in which protesters are demanding election reforms, bring to the fore sensitive issues for the Chinese leadership. The government is always concerned that protests in one part of China, if left unchallenged, might encourage people in other parts to rise up. Hong Kong, which was given limited autonomy and freedoms upon its return to China from British colonial rule 17 years ago, was supposed to be a showcase for Beijing’s ability to manage a cosmopolitan financial hub with limited intervention.
Now, President Xi faces tough choices between modifying the proposed formula for Hong Kong’s election system and appearing weak, or dislodging the protesters with force that would conjure memories of Beijing’s bloody 1989 pro-democracy crackdown in Tiananmen Square.
The Hong Kong civil disobedience campaign is roiling public opinion in Taiwan, the democratic island that Beijing has long sought to win over. Last week Mr. Xi mentioned Hong Kong’s semiautonomy as a model for reintegrating Taiwan in meeting a delegation from the island. But many there displayed solidarity with the Hong Kong’s protesters as footage of students overcome by tear gas and the city’s financial district shrouded in white smoke played repeatedly on Taiwan television.
“If Beijing has any intention of creating a kind or nice image in the hearts of Taiwan people, what happened over the weekend in Hong Kong is extremely unhelpful,” said Alex Huang, a political-science professor at Tamkang University.
Beijing appeared on high alert to ensure copycat action doesn’t appear elsewhere in the country, such as the restive regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. News from Hong Kong was heavily censored in mainland China’s press and on social media; the photo-sharing app Instagram experienced outages Monday, according to several Internet-tracking organizations.
In watching the events unfold in Hong Kong, China’s top leaders fear any “contagion effect” that encourages the disgruntled elsewhere in China to press for greater rights or which suggests national sovereignty is being undermined by “foreign hostile forces” that challenge Communist Party rule, said Dingding Chen, an assistant professor of government and public administration at the University of Macau.
A further problem, Mr. Chen said, is that compromise will become tougher the more the Hong Kong protests challenge Beijing or are seen as a model for other movements, rather than a reflection of the city’s unique standing within China.
Should events spin beyond the control of Hong Kong’s police forces, the People’s Liberation Army maintains a garrison in Hong Kong, and a retired official said earlier this year that the forces might be called upon to suppress a riot. A contingent of China’s paramilitary police, trained in quelling civil unrest, is deployed in Guangdong province, adjacent to Hong Kong.
But a Tiananmen-like response is remote, and the government pulled back riot police on Monday as a good-faith effort aimed at diffusing the tension after widespread global criticism of the weekend’s tear gas.
“The biggest thing they want to avoid is a bloody conflict,” said Mr. Chen.
The problems in Hong Kong come just ahead of Wednesday’s National Day, the 65th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic and a time that China’s leaders use to stress national unity. As the protest activity heated up Monday, the government canceled an annual fireworks show planned for Hong Kong’s waterfront.
Even before Hong Kong’s return from British rule, Chinese leaders worried that the capitalist enclave might serve as a base to infiltrate and subvert the rest of China, with foreign support. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry struck that theme Monday, warning foreign governments to stay out of domestic affairs, including “external forces supporting illegal activities” Hong Kong.
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